Friday, December 19, 2003

[Sunday] sorry I droppped this bit of free-floating text in here, without giving it a reference - and as I have now forgotten where I saw it I'll just point to

and their page "will there be a housing price crash?"

It's just such a bubble, a confidence trick, and (like the stock exchange) it is crucial to talk it up (i.e. kid yourself and others like a gambling addict) - and not even think about the possibility of losing. Even writing this I am slightly undermining confidence - and people get angry and threatened to even think about it.

"But the IMF estimates growth of just 2.5 per cent in 2005 whereas the Chancellor expects it to be between three per cent and 3.5 per cent.

The IMF is also calling for higher interest rates in the near future to cool down the housing market and consumer borrowing.

However it does warn that the Bank of England will have to be careful in case such a move would cause a house price crash.

It said the risk was not great but could not be discounted altogether.

It said that with so many households in the UK up to their neck in debt, the management of any interest rate increases would be a "particular challenge". "

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